Will The National Museum of African American History and Culture still be in operation through EOY 2026?
Will The National Museum of African American History and Culture still be in operation through EOY 2026?
6
Ṁ1162026
62%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if none of these happen before resolution date:
The museum is moved from its current location (1400 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC)
The museum is indefinitely and unexpectedly closed
The museum's purpose is changed, and it no longer focuses on African American history and culture
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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