Will any major Iranian oil refinery be taken out by December 20 2024?
Basic
10
Ṁ227Dec 21
46%
chance
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1W
1M
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any listed major Iranian oil refinery is damaged to the point of inoperability for any length of time due to violent or military action by December 20, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The major Iranian oil refineries considered for this market are:
Abadan Refinery
Isfahan Refinery
Arak Refinery
Bandar Abbas Refinery
Tehran Refinery
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and/or Iran, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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