Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that China has switched over a substantial fraction of its industrial overcapacity to the production of military hardware before January 1st, 2030.

Criteria for Resolution:

• Strong Evidence:

  • The shift must be reported by at least two reputable sources, such as major international news outlets, recognized defense analysts, or official government publications.

  • Acceptable sources include but are not limited to: The New York Times, BBC, Reuters, Jane's Defence Weekly, SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), and official statements from the Chinese government or the Ministry of National Defense.
    
    

• Substantial Fraction:

  • Defined as at least 20% of China's documented industrial overcapacity being redirected to military production.

  • Overcapacity refers to industrial facilities that are not fully utilized for civilian production and have the potential to produce additional goods without significant new investment.
    
    

• Conversion to Military Production:

  • The overcapacity must be actively used to produce military hardware, including but not limited to:

    • Weapons systems (missiles, firearms, artillery)

    • Military vehicles (tanks, aircraft, naval vessels)

    • Ammunition and explosives

    • Military communication and surveillance equipment

  • Mere announcements of intent or plans without actual implementation will not be considered sufficient.
    
    

• Time Frame:

  • The conversion must occur before January 1st, 2030.

  • Evidence must indicate that the shift started and was operational before this date.
    
    

• Exclusions:

  • Routine military expansion proportional to economic growth or defense budget increases does not count.

  • Temporary or short-term conversions lasting less than six months will be excluded.

  • Production of dual-use goods (items that have both civilian and military applications) will only be counted if there is clear evidence they are intended primarily for military use.