Some support for YES from the war criminal Igor Girkin

This resolves NO in absence of some extraordinary events that are hard to even imagine (basically a complete collapse of RU military).

@mods It appears the owner of this market has deleted his account. I think their could be an argument for this market to be resolved yes. During the last week, Ukraine has begun a campaign against the Russian naval, air, and transportation infrastructure in Crimea with the recently supplied NATO munitions. Here are a few news article regarding these recent developments:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/06/02/in-crimea-ukraine-is-beating-russia
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-crimea-tightens-the-noose/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/31/small-boat-massacre-as-russias-big-warships-retreat-ukraine-targets-the-smaller-craft-left-behind/?sh=3cf5d82d2a0f

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/06/02/the-economist-ukraine-gradually-gains-upper-hand-in-crimea-battle/

I think its possible that these actions could meet the conditions set out by the original poster. He clarified in the comments that only one criteria must be met for resolution and further specified that "laying a siege of Crimea. Permanently destroying or crippling Russian supply lines into Crimea would also count." At this moment, I would argue this is occurring. At the same time I could see the argument from the other side. I defer to your judgement in the matter. I think this situation is likely to pick up in the fall and winter months, rather than slow down. The siege of Crimea is just beginning.

@EugeneBixby I am not sure it is "occurring", yes, there's an uptick in activity but supply lines IMHO are nowhere near "permanently destroyed", nor "permanently crippled". Also not sure how you could "lay siege" without controllingvast majority of access routes (Ukraine controls no access route to Crimea and is IMHO at best contesting the sea approaches and somewhat inconveniencing the land routes)

@EugeneBixby This does not look like "attempting to retake" to me, even if it is a prelude. Regardless the question has six months left so we can just wait.

Theyre doing it. Ukraine is striking Crimea in mass, the beach head is being softened

@EugeneBixby

SLAVA UKRAINI

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-stabilized-kharkiv-russia-offensive-crimea-drone-attack-power-rcna152717

https://kosovapress.com/en/ukraina-shtrengon-rusine-rreth-krimese

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/31/small-boat-massacre-as-russias-big-warships-retreat-ukraine-targets-the-smaller-craft-left-behind/?sh=5aea287c2a0f

"Attempts to seriously undermine the Russian defense of Crimea by the Ukrainian military are undertaken, in preparation for a large scale assault, at any time during 2024."

What do you mean by this? Could you provide concrete examples? Because Ukraine has been hitting Crimea with various kinds of missiles and drones for some time, now. I take it this doesn't qualify, but what would?

@AlexandreK I’m thinking more along the lines of encirclement, or laying a siege of Crimea. Permanently destroying or crippling Russian supply lines into Crimea would also count.

@Meta_C do we need both conditions? Like a mere siege should not be enough?

@42irrationalist You don’t need both, just one of these conditions is enough.

@Meta_C This feels way to vague for me to bet. Lots of things can happen that wouldn't really fall under the common sense definition of "attempt to retake" that would cause the market to resolve YES.

I think it's possible that the Russian government loses control of the land bridge to Crimea and then Crimea is sort of sieged but it's far from "an attempt to retake"

Just to be clear: this resolves YES if both of the conditions apply? Or is just one sufficient?

@MartinModrak Just one is sufficient for this poll.

Whether both happens depends largely on when in the year they start doing so, and other factors such as logistics, etc. But as long as the clear signal of intent is there, it then counts as a “Yes”.