When will the first reputable AI-lab go public via a SPAC?
Basic
6
Ṁ75Jan 1
14%
H1'2024
14%
H2'2024
14%
H1'2025
14%
H2'2025
44%
No AI-lab goes public via a SPAC in '24 or '25
To define what a reputable AI-lab, it'll need to have some requirements:
A foundational language model comparable to the ChatGPT free model
I'll rely on Hugging Face and LLMSys benchmarks
In case of continuous controversy, I may rely on a poll of Manifold users
I won't bet. This market resolves at the announcement date.
Labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, Cohere, Stability, AI21Labs, would count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?
20% chance
xAI IPOs by EOY 2026?
12% chance
Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?
4% chance
What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?
Will a Generative AI (LLM) startup IPO before EOY 2025?
16% chance
Will OpenAI IPO before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of March 2026?
9% chance
Will xAI be the first to release AGI to the public?
10% chance
Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
75% chance
Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?
75% chance