Will "Without fundamental advances, misalignment an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Basic
7
Ṁ752026
46%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Without fundamental advances, misalignment and catastrophe are the default outcomes of training powerful AI is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will "Model Organisms of Misalignment: The Case for..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
79% chance
Will "The Dial of Progress" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
34% chance
Will "Towards Developmental Interpretability" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
69% chance
Will "Shallow review of live agendas in alignment &..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
61% chance
Will "Alignment Implications of LLM Successes: a De..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
37% chance
Will "Accidentally Load Bearing" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
41% chance
Will "Lessons On How To Get Things Right On The Fir..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
55% chance
Will "Against Almost Every Theory of Impact of Inte..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
59% chance
Will "Noting an error in Inadequate Equilibria" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
23% chance