Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Stoke Space successfully launches a rocket to space (reaching at least 100 km altitude) by December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from Stoke Space, FAA records, or credible space industry sources. The market resolves NO if no spaceflight is achieved by the deadline.

Background

Stoke Space Technologies is an American space launch company based in Kent, Washington, founded by former Blue Origin and SpaceX employees. Nova is a fully reusable medium-lift launch vehicle with an expected payload capacity of 3 tons to low Earth orbit, with the first stage performing a return-to-launch-site landing. The company adjusted its target date to early 2026 as of July 28, 2025, though the company plans to complete the first orbital flight of Nova by late 2026. Launch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral is scheduled for activation in early 2026. The first successful hot fire of Stoke Space's full flow staged combustion engine named Zenith was reported in June 2024.

Considerations

Stoke Space has never conducted an orbital launch. The company's goal is to create a 100% reusable launch vehicle, including both first and second stages — something no other company has yet achieved. Development timelines for new rockets frequently slip; the 2027 deadline provides a 12-month buffer beyond the company's stated early 2026 target, but execution risk remains substantial for a first-time orbital attempt.