Will Taiwan/ROC gain any 'diplomatic allies' before 2027?
Will Taiwan/ROC gain any 'diplomatic allies' before 2027?
Basic
3
Ṁ612026
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Currently only thirteen countries recognise Taiwan/ROC.
I think the last country to flip from PRC to Taiwan/ROC was Nauru in 2005.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Taiwan/ROC lose a 'diplomatic ally' in 2025?
50% chance
How many 'diplomatic allies' will ROC (Taiwan) lose in the period 2024-2027?
Which of Taiwan/ROC's 'diplomatic allies' will 'flip' to the PRC before 2028?
Which of Taiwan/ROC's 'diplomatic allies' will be next to 'flip' to the PRC?
Will Taiwan be Taiwan in 2025?
88% chance
Will the Vatican State stop its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan and establish one with China before 2027?
30% chance
Will the President of Taiwan(ROC) visit the US in 2025?
46% chance
Will ROC (Taiwan) and Somaliland establish full diplomatic relations before 2030?
38% chance
Taiwan/ROC government in exile supported by US any time through 2033
29% chance
Will Taiwan join the UN by the end of 2030?
13% chance