Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if Elizabeth Tsurkov is released from captivity on or before June 30, 2025. Verification will be based reputable news organizations such as The Times of Israel (timesofisrael.com) and official government announcements (US and Israel). If no such reports confirm her release by the specified date, the market will resolve NO.

Recent reports have indicated that a deal is close, e.g. https://www.timesofisrael.com/reports-say-deal-in-works-for-release-of-israeli-russian-held-hostage-by-iraqi-militia/

Note that a deal being reached is not enough to resolve the market: she must be released by the close date.

Background

Elizabeth Tsurkov, a Russian-Israeli researcher and doctoral student at Princeton University, was kidnapped in Baghdad in March 2023 while conducting field research. She is believed to be held by Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Shi'ite militia in Iraq (en.wikipedia.org). In November 2023, a video was released showing Tsurkov in captivity, indicating she was alive at that time (timesofisrael.com). As of January 2025, Iraqi officials confirmed she remains alive and stated that efforts are ongoing to secure her release (jpost.com).