I'll resolve this question to my P(Loss of Control before 2100) at the start of 2030.

Reusable definitions:

"Loss of Control" captures all scenarios where the long-term future does not contain large amounts of value because of humanity.

"Before 2100" adds a time cutoff in case no singularity or extinction events happen until end of century.

Examples and counterexamples:

1. Asteroid wipes out Earth = Loss of control

2. Aligned ASI for a transhumanist utopia = No Loss of Control

3. We create unaligned ASI that kills us and makes the universe worthless by our values = Loss of Control

4. Unaligned ASI kills us but similar-to-us aliens still do valuable-to-us things in their region of the universe = Loss of Control

5. Unaligned ASI sells copies of our minds to charitable aliens who gift us nice things = Loss of Control

6. Humanity makes it to 2100 without ASI regardless of what happens later = No Loss of Control

History:

On 2024-11-06 my aggregate guess, all things considered, was P(Loss of Control before 2100)=96%

Markets for other years:

2026: https://manifold.markets/Joern/whatll-be-my-ploss-of-control-befor

2027: https://manifold.markets/Joern/whatll-be-my-ploss-of-control-befor-ZPPPN68tZp

2028: https://manifold.markets/Joern/whatll-be-my-ploss-of-control-befor-QlsSCOsZLL

2029: https://manifold.markets/Joern/whatll-be-my-ploss-of-control-befor-SLgQN5RP9p

2030: this market https://manifold.markets/Joern/whatll-be-my-ploss-of-control-befor-8dpOh0pEhn

2035: https://manifold.markets/Joern/whatll-be-my-ploss-of-control-befor-LN82gdUEUs

2040: https://manifold.markets/Joern/whatll-be-my-ploss-of-control-befor-p0ZpyLdhpQ

2025: (Relevantly different criteria & question!) https://manifold.markets/Joern/whats-my-pdoom-in-2025