Will the U.S. military budget decrease by 10%+ during the 2025-2029 presidential term?
Basic
7
Ṁ1502029
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria:
1. The baseline is the enacted FY2025 Department of Defense base budget of $849.8 billion in nominal dollars.
2. The comparison will be made against the last enacted base budget or actual base spending (whichever is lower) during the presidential term ending January 20, 2029.
3. A decrease of 10% or more (meaning $764.8 billion or lower) from the baseline qualifies as YES.
4. Budget numbers will be sourced from official Congressional Budget Office or Department of Defense documents.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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