On LMSys, what will be the difference between the top model and GPT-4-1106 on Jan 1 2026?
On LMSys, what will be the difference between the top model and GPT-4-1106 on Jan 1 2026?
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On the LMSys leaderboard, GPT-4-1106-preview is currently ranked the highest. The question asks about the difference between the ELO of the highest-performing model, and GPT-4-1106, at midnight, January 1, 2026 PST. For example, if the top model has 1400 ELO, and GPT-4-1106 has 1200 ELO, then this question resolves to 200.
Edge cases:
If the difference is more than 300, then resolves to 300
If GPT-4-1106 is removed from the leaderboard, then use GPT-4-0125 instead
If both 1106 and 0125 are removed from the leaderboard:
If there exists a version of GPT-4 that was within 30 ELO of 1106 or 0125, then use that version of GPT-4
Otherwise, resolves N/A
If the LMSys leaderboard no longer exists or is somehow compromised, then resolves N/A
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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