Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) classifies the United States as either a "hybrid regime" or an "authoritarian regime" in any of its Democracy Index reports published before January 1, 2030. It resolves to NO if the United States remains classified as either a "full democracy" or a "flawed democracy" in all EIU Democracy Index reports through the end of 2029.

Background

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) publishes an annual Democracy Index that categorizes countries into four regime types:

• Full democracies (scores of 8.01-10)

• Flawed democracies (scores of 6.01-8.00)

• Hybrid regimes (scores of 4.01-6.00)

• Authoritarian regimes (scores of 0-4.00)

The United States has been classified as a "flawed democracy" since 2016, with its rating based on five categories: electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties.

For this market to resolve YES, the EIU would need to downgrade the United States from its current "flawed democracy" status to either a "hybrid regime" or an "authoritarian regime" in at least one of its annual reports published before 2030.

Considerations

While there are ongoing concerns about democratic erosion in the United States, including political polarization and declining trust in institutions, a downgrade to "hybrid regime" status would represent a significant deterioration in the EIU's assessment of American democracy beyond its current "flawed democracy" classification.