If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?
If the Republican candidate loses the U.S. Presidential election in 2028, will they say it was rigged/stolen?
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Resolves "yes" if the candidate says the election was stolen, rigged, a scam, fraud or something along those lines that clearly states they don't believe the entire outcome. Will not resolve if they say things like "there are some inconsistencies" "there are concerning things we are looking into" or things of that nature. Has to be a full throated rejection. If they change their mind later and concede, it would still resolve "yes" if they first made one of the "scam" statements. Will be n/a if the Republican wins in 2028.
Created this as curious if people think 2020/ Trump were anomalies or if this is the new norm for elections.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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