I'll put the chances of him being in power at the 80-90% range so bet against it for now.

@QlumWyrfex Feel free to take my limit orders. It's currently hard to imagine what would make him lose power over the year.

/Ernie/1-year-after-putin-who-will-be-the

This seems unusually high given he has cancer and every wealthy democracy in the world wants him dead (not to mention rumblings of severe discontentment from his inner circle, who increasingly need him less than he needs them). He’s also losing his own expensive, deadly, demoralizing war.

Lot of confidence from this market in an infirm public enemy number one, hemorrhaging resources and time, who can’t even trust his own chosen advisors.

@Slothrop 🤣?

@AltPutin Yeah I think his murderous rampage across Europe for no reason is funny too - ha ha

@Slothrop Кем ты себя возомнил? 🔌

Based on the results of the elections to the State Duma in 2021, it became clear that the innovation called Remote Electronic Voting covers up all real votes on printed ballots. With the help of this tool, it has become much easier to falsify elections, which has been used more than once in elections at various levels. Therefore, the result of the 2024 Russian presidential elections is very predictable - Putin will remain in power.

He cares about his health above all else, and does not allow anyone closer than a few meters, not even his officials. His life does not appear to be in danger. So, I bet yes

@26a0 Correct. There is a chance he could die but it's not 10%.

Related:
https://manifold.markets/AlexandreK/will-vladimir-putin-stop-being-pres

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

35% chance. This question resolves to yes if Putin is no longer president of Russia while Zelensky is still president of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, the reason for either president to no longer be president is irrelevant: lost election, death, destitution, coup d'état, anything counts. If Putin becomes prime minister while someone else assumes the presidency, Putin will no longer be considered president, even if there is broad agreement that the official president is no more than a figurehead. Ditto for Zelensky. For the purposes of this question, in the event that either president would lose de facto control over the capital of his country, he would no longer be considered president, regardless of the de jure situation, even if he retreats to some other place and maintains a government in exile of any sort. It's a bit arbitrary, but I think it makes things easier to resolve, as consitutional issues of this type can become very tricky to resolve objectively. The question resolves as soon as either man is no longer president. If for some reason it happens at exactly the same time for both of them, it resolves as N/A.

Почему ты так одержим мной? ❓

Related market:

As a Russian I am betting yes for two reasons:

— It's suicidal for Putin to not run for power. He is currently controlling everything. He keeps his power by default and something unusual has to happen in order for him to lose power.

— Either I win by betting YES on this market or I win by not having my country run by a dictator. Losing would feel sweet.