What will become of Luffy's hat?
What will become of Luffy's hat?
Plus
52
Ṁ28842026
56%
Passed down to another pirate
22%
Left with or added to the One Piece
14%
Kept and worn indefinitely by Luffy
7%
Returned to Shanks
1%
Resolves to the final status of the straw hat once the manga concludes. So even if it is stolen by the world government, but later returned and is last seen with Luffy, then "stolen by an antagonist" still resolves NO.
Edge cases:
"Lost to history" resolves YES if the hat is last seen sinking into the ocean, getting buried, etc. AKA interpret "lost" somewhat literally here.
"Returned to Shanks" resolves NO if Luffy attempts to give the hat back but is refused. Think about who might be holding/wearing the hat in its last appearance.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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