Will Chechenya be a sovereign state before 2040?
Basic
6
Ṁ1442040
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Chechenya joins the UN as a sovereign state, resolves as YES
If Chechenya is self-declared sovereign and has >90% of international recognition, resolves as YES
If Chechenya is self-declared sovereign and has <90% of international recognition, resolves as the percentage of countries that recognize its independence
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
At any point before start of 2050, will a country named Chechnya (or similar) be a member of the UN?
40% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
49% chance
Will Ramzan Kadyrov remain the head of the Chechen Republic (Chechnya) by the end of 2025?
71% chance
Will Ramzan Kadyrov remain the head of the Chechen Republic (Chechnya) by the end of 2024?
92% chance
Will Russia control Grozny on Jan 1st 2033?
69% chance
Will Russia annex either Abkhazia or South Ossetia before 2030?
37% chance
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
26% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
47% chance
Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?
36% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
48% chance