This market predicts whether Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, will leave France for any length of time between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Durov is currently barred from leaving France due to an ongoing formal investigation, and his status remains unchanged as of December 10, 2024.

Context:

Pavel Durov has been under formal investigation in France since mid-2024, facing allegations related to facilitating organized crime, drug trafficking, and the distribution of child sexual abuse material on Telegram. He is prohibited from leaving the country and is required to report to a police station twice weekly. This market will determine if Durov leaves French territory during 2025, despite these restrictions.

Resolution Criteria:

• YES: This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reporting confirms that Pavel Durov has left France for any length of time during 2025. This includes:

  • Exiting French airspace and disembarking in a country other than France.

  • Exiting French maritime territory into international waters.

• NO: This market will resolve to "No" if no credible reporting confirms that Durov left France during the specified period, or if he remains within French territory through December 31, 2025.

Key Notes:

1. For cases where Durov may exit French airspace on a plane, it must be confirmed that he landed and disembarked in a country other than France for this market to resolve to "Yes."

2. Exiting French maritime territory into international waters will count as leaving France.

3. Temporary exits from French territory will count if verified by credible sources.

4. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting from reputable news outlets or official statements.

Timeline:

• The market closes on December 31, 2025.

• Resolution will occur shortly after credible information becomes available.
  

Any further clarifications (that change the description) will be made using comments below. Please comment with any updates, questions, or relevant news!