Aella switches to a private life through 2030
Aella switches to a private life through 2030
Basic
4
Ṁ27
2031
33%
chance

She will switch her lifestyle and be incommunicado from Twitter or other sites for at least 6 months continuouslt through 2030

So she won't have done any interviews, appeared as herself (the Aella character), or other media work, nor posted life updates, personal tweets, etc.

It may be hard to make a clear distinction. What I'm going for is she no longer supports her fans with personal info. No OF, no personal Twitter or similar future thing. The public (including paying public) will no longer have a way to know what she's up to, relationship status, motherhood or job status. No baby pics. Even if it's done as a new alter ego or as her true identity, any public sharing disqualifies it from counting as a private life.

If she does post scientific research it may still be a YES if it's truly very official and not revealing anything personal.

This may be hard to judge. I'll do my best but please realize there are serious hard cases. I'm not a fan of NA but if worst comes to worst I may resolve to percent although I greatly prefer a solid yes or no.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules