Will Melania divorce or separate from Trump by 2050?
Will Melania divorce or separate from Trump by 2050?
8
Ṁ1802050
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if, at any time before January 1, 2050:
Melania Trump files for legal separation or divorce from Donald Trump
Donald Trump files for legal separation or divorce from Melania Trump
The couple announces a formal separation (even without legal proceedings)
The market will resolve as NO if:
Melania and Donald Trump remain married without separation until January 1, 2050
Donald Trump passes away before 2050 while still married to Melania, vice versa
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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