Will a new play written by Tom Stoppard premier by the end of 2026?
Will a new play written by Tom Stoppard premier by the end of 2026?
Plus
1
Ṁ562027
47%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to “yes” if, by 31st December 2026:
A show premiers on broadway or in a theatre elsewhere.
Tom Stoppard is the author or co-author of the script.
The show stages its official premiere.
Tickets are available for general purchase.
Workshop performances and previews do not count.
Context:
Stoppard’s previous play, Leopoldstadt, premiered in January 2020, and the play before that premiered in 2015
Stoppard is 87 as of August 2024 - Wikipedia biography
As of 2023 Stoppard was writing another play but was complaining of writer’s block
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a new musical by Lin-Manuel Miranda premier by the end of 2025?
49% chance
Will there be a legitimate movie version of the Galileo musical by the end of 2025?
41% chance
Will the new Harry Potter series premiere before the end of 2026?
82% chance
Will there be an Unsong musical by the end of 2026?
14% chance
Will I get a cast recording of the Rocket Boys musical by the end of 2025?
8% chance
Will there be at least 14 new musicals for the 2024-2025 Broadway season?
52% chance
Will a new television series produced by David Simon air before the end of 2025?
40% chance
Will the album “Warriors” be adapted as a musical that premieres by 2030?
57% chance
Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026?
55% chance
Will a sequel to "Fallout: New Vegas" be announced by the end of 2026?
18% chance