Will Trump appear on SNL before the 2028 election?
Will Trump appear on SNL before the 2028 election?
Plus
31
Ṁ81732028
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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In his 113 predictions article, Nate Silver gives this a 30% chance, calling the question “A bellwether for cultural vibes: SNL has already shifted from a Kamala Harris guest appearance to skewering MSNBC”.
That number seems high to me, since SNL and Trump have feuded a lot since he was elected. On the other hand, he hosted the show in 2015 and 2004, so the base rate is nonzero.
Resolves YES if the real Donald Trump (not just an impression or AI synthesis of him) appears in person on Saturday Night Live before Election Day 2028.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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