When Will 9x9 Go Be Solved?
When Will 9x9 Go Be Solved?
3
Ṁ572100
24%
Before 2027
34%
Before 2030
41%
Before 2035
50%
Before 2040
59%
Before 2050
74%
Before 2100
50%
2100 or later
"Solved" means it has been proven that, given one specific komi value, 9x9 go is tied with optimal play. An ultraweak solution would suffice to solve this, as long as the game is certainly tied with that komi. Any reasonable 9x9 ruleset will count.
If a proof is offered in, for example, 2029, but not accepted until after 2030, this market will resolve to "Before 2030". As a result, options might not necessarily resolve right away (on top of the fact that I'm unlikely to resolve things promptly years in the future). I expect this market to be fairly simple to resolve, but if there's any controversy over whether a solution or ruleset "counts" I'll sell all my shares before resolving. Barring that, I may trade in this market if I feel like it.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
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