How many OpenAI employee letter-signers will recant? (EOY2024)
Basic
8
Ṁ282
Jan 1
23%
0
27%
1-5
14%
5-10
9%
10-25
9%
25-50
9%
50-100
6%
100-350
3%
350+

740+/770 OpenAI employees reportedly signed a letter asking the board to resign and reverse Sam Altman's firing.

On the other hand...


Employees are counted as recanting if by end of 2024:
- they remove or ask that their name is removed from the letter
- they express that they no longer support Helen/Adam/Tasha being removed (ignoring whether Ilya should be removed here given he's a bit of an edge case)
- they express that they no longer support Sam Altman being reinstated
- they express that the board in fact acted reasonably/in good faith in their initial actions or relative silence
- they express that inertia, peer pressure, fear, or monetary considerations were a more significant factor in their signing than agreement with the substance of the letter

They are not counted if:
- their change in de facto position merely reflects a changed status quo (e.g. if the board stays as part of a compromise, they are are allowed to merely support that compromise; they are allowed to say a new CEO is doing a good job and should stay after some time on the job)

I won't bet.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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Closest I'm aware of is some stuff like this, and one could certainly read into some departures, but I'm not aware of any statements definitive enough to meet the bar for this market. I plan to resolve to 0 in a few days absent counterexamples.

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