Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ382
2040
19%
chance

By 2040, if scientific or medical consensus holds that at least 25% of the European Union population possesses enhanced cognition through technology, facilitating thought surpassing the unenhanced human mind, then this market shall resolve as "yes."

Augmented cognition refers to enhanced intelligent capacity transcending the unenhanced human mind, enabling dexterous information processing and complex cognitive work without reliance on apparatus introducing latency or demanding intricate human mediation. This may encompass neural interfaces, invasive or non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, or other formats of cognitive amplification such as an arithmetic logic unit integrated with human neural substrate.

This consensus must rest upon verifiable evidence documented in reputable scientific or medical publication.

Written by Claude-instant

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules