THIS MARKET IS CURRENTLY A DRAFT, CRITERIA AND CLOSE TIME SUBJECT TO COMPLETE REWRITE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Inspired by @CharlesLien's Tic-Tac-Toe market

What is the probability of winning for each action (if played)?

Board state (shade indicates mine probability):

Choosing an Action

Anyone can add new options to the market, up to 72 hours before the market closes. Actions are represented in the format (row, column), where row is a number 1-16 and column is a number 1-30.

When this market closes, one of the options that was added at least 72 hours before market close will be chosen with the following distribution:

• 99% chance: Square with highest probability.**

• 1% chance: Choose a random square (uniformly at random out of the remaining options).

At that time, all non-chosen options will be N/Aed.

I will then compute the probability of a mine being present in the selected cell, and randomly choose whether there is a mine in that cell with that probability. If there is a mine, the chosen answer and the chosen answers on prior markets will resolve NO.

Otherwise, a number for the square will be chosen (each number with probability proportional to the probability of a particular number of mines next to the square, according to the usual minesweeper rules). If there are any squares that then have probability 0 of having a mine, this process will be repeated recursively until no such squares are left.

If there are any non-mine non-clicked squares left, a new market will be created with the resulting board state and with the same rules for choosing actions. New markets will be created in this manner until the game is over. If the game terminates without hitting a mine, all selected options in all the corresponding markets will resolve YES.

**Highest probability is determined by the displayed percentage in the UI. If there is more than one option with the same (highest) percentage, the tie is broken by whichever option shows up when sorted by "High %"