In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*. I find this rather hard to believe.
What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?
I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.
* More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947
This is a duplicate of another market that I made with the wrong close date...
https://manifold.markets/Boklam/in-the-next-five-years-will-the-peo
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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