What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Basic
27
Ṁ15452026
23%
It is SOTA according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard
56%
It is called Claude 4
69%
It will have Video(Input) modality
24%
It will have Video(Output) modality
78%
It will have Audio(Input) modality
36%
It will have Audio(Output) modality
30%
It will have been released in H1 2025
68%
It will have been released in H2 2025
38%
It can score Bronze or higher on IMO
4%
It is called Claude 3
8%
It is called Claude 5
64%
It is not called Claude N, for some integer N
8%
It is called Claude 6
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
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