Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2029, the United States federal government assumes ownership or control of a major artificial intelligence (AI) laboratory. "Major AI laboratory" refers to a leading organization primarily engaged in AI research and development, such as OpenAI, DeepMind, or similar entities. The resolution will be based on credible reports from reputable news outlets or official government announcements confirming such nationalization. If no such event occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Nationalization involves transferring private assets into public ownership by a government. Historically, the U.S. has nationalized industries during crises, such as the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the 2008 financial crisis (en.wikipedia.org). In the context of AI, nationalization would mean the government taking control of private AI labs to oversee development and deployment.

Considerations

• Innovation Impact: Critics argue that nationalization could stifle innovation due to bureaucratic inefficiencies, as seen in other industries (thehill.com).

• Ethical Oversight: Proponents suggest that government control could ensure AI development aligns with public interest and ethical standards (grwalters.com).

• Historical Precedents: The U.S. has a history of nationalizing industries during crises, such as the federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the 2008 financial crisis (en.wikipedia.org).

• Legislative Actions: Recent legislative proposals, like the Prohibiting Nationalization of American Companies and Investments Act of 2023, indicate a political climate generally opposed to nationalization (congress.gov).

• Global Competition: Nationalization could affect the U.S.'s position in the global AI race, especially against countries with significant government involvement in AI, such as China.

• Public Opinion: Public and industry reactions to potential nationalization efforts could influence political decisions and the feasibility of such actions.