I think it is obvious that his expected lifespan is lower than average, given that there is at least a substantial probability that he will test some intervention or other that ends up doing severe harm.

@DavidBolin harm may not offset all the benefits from even the most basic things like low calories, and perfect healthy habits

@Lydia What did you see?

the light of longevity SPEAKETH

Will Bryan Johnson become a centenarian?40%‌

@FUH do you really think he'll live to 137? is this about AGI?

@jacksonpolack nah, i held so much NO for so long. But unfortunately I must sell to liquidate as I'm out of mana and this market was where I could pull out from without heavy losses (thanks to @MichaelWheatley 's limit order)

I mean... betting on him living to 103 is basically betting he's discovered > 1 decade's worth of meaningful longevity secrets, no? Because even someone of his wealth and health shouldn't live on average more than ~90 years, even extrapolating fairly optimistic future trends on lifespan.

@BenjaminShindel Dude, by the time he’s 90, it’s 2070s. We’ll be either all immortal or dead.

@AntonMakiievskyi Umm, feel free to make a market for that! Happy to bet against you there :)

@BenjaminShindel That's fine, let ppl who want to believe his scientific PR campaign believe it. My qualm is this market closes in 2084 so it's really not worthwhile to bet lower as I'm throwing away money.

@AgoLajko nah. first of all, you get all of mana back as a loan in 50 days (2% per day). and also, you can sell your shares at any moment, so if market shifts to the side you predicted - you don't need to wait until resolution to get your mana+profits back

@AntonMakiievskyi correction, the loans changed to 4©

@AntonMakiievskyi Why is the market closing in 2084?

@Simon74fe I didn't know what date to choose, and chose some random year far into the future

Here is my very simple model for his life expectancy:
Super-rich men: 90
Plus continuing trend of generally increased life expectancy due to medical progress: 95
Plus super healthy lifestyle: 100+?
Plus medical progress aided by future AI/AGI: ++?

Why are some people betting NO at around 100 years?
Is there something off with this model?
Or do you think there's a significant chance that his more speculative interventions could be net harmful?

@Simon74fe Most of these are overlapping with each other and should not be counted separately

@AntonMakiievskyi What happens to this market if he hasn't yet died by the time he is 1000 years old? Will it resolve to 1000?

@Simon74fe Good question. I'll reconsider it in 2900s

@Simon74fe in seriousness, I believe that according to description it shouldn't be resolved at age 1000 if he is still alive, same as at any other age. Even if humans become immortal - there is always a suicide possibility

@AntonMakiievskyi It seems the market can't resolve to higher than 1000? So if humans become practically immortal we would have to wait until someday it resolves to either 1000, or to N/A?

I have a feeling that one of the more cutting edge health tech innovations will have adverse side effects that may even render a lower than average lifespan.

Do all diseases count? A future pandemic seems like a significant risk. I'd suggest not counting contagious diseases beyond some threshold of deadliness (e.g. if it's deadlier than covid). I think it's still fine to make this change/clarification at this point.

@BryanJohnson

Welcome to the site!

@Joshua happy to be here!

@zero What age are you hoping for? One of your trades took the expected age from 113 to 382 years.

I appreciate all your efforts, but surely you'll have cancer, a stroke and dementia before you're 200 years old...

@Tribukait a bet against me is a bet against AI

@zero Bros pumping his own stock 😂.

@prime probably bc numeric markets have awful liquidity