Will I emigrate from the US by the end of 2025? Will I regret emigrating or not emigrating by the end of 2026?
Will I emigrate from the US by the end of 2025? Will I regret emigrating or not emigrating by the end of 2026?
3
Ṁ952027
20%
No Leave, No Regret
22%
No Leave, Yes Regret
33%
Yes Leave, No Regret
25%
Yes Leave, Yes Regret
Trying to leave for grad school in Europe. Doesn't need to be through that route though, I just need to be living outside the US on a at least a semi-permanent basis
Regret is based on how I feel at end of 2026.
I won't bet, except to bet down the "No" or "Yes" options to 0% depending on that happens.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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