Will I think that 80,000 hours has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
Plus
11
Ṁ13102027
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if, in the best judgement of me or people I trust, 80,000 hours has committed a significant malfeasance before end of 2026. Else resolves NO.
See also:
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-vox-write-an-article-about-a-s
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-nyt-write-an-article-about-a-s
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will I spend at least 156 hours studying programming from now (November 17 2024) till the end of 2024 (UTC+1) ?
41% chance
Will I think that CEA has done a significantly bad thing before end of 2026?
36% chance
If I spend up to another 100 hours talking to Timothy B. Lee about AI existential risk, will it be productive?
30% chance
Will I run at least 500 hours in 2024?
6% chance
Will I have a positive view of effective altruism on December 31, 2024?
17% chance
Will I go back to being a utilitarian by the end of 2024?
48% chance
Will prediction markets feature on the 80,000 Hours podcast by the end of 2024?
29% chance
Will I end up logging fewer hours of video games in 2024 than 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, or ANY previous year?
32% chance
Will I still be waking up in the middle of the night by the end of 2024?
64% chance
By 2028, will I think Anthropic has been net-good for the world?
60% chance