When will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
When will AI write a widely read version of The Winds of Winter - GOT Book 6?
Basic
3
Ṁ1412029
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
2025
14%
2026
76%
A Song of Ice and Fire Book #5 called A Dance with Dragons, was released in 2011. It is now 2023 and we are at least three years from George R.R. Martin releasing the book six. Which year can we expect AI to be able to write a loved sequel that is widely read (10,000 ratings or more on GoodReads)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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