The resolution of this market will be based on official announcements, publications, and regulatory changes from credible sources such as:

1. U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA): The primary source for official regulatory changes regarding tobacco products.

2. Federal Register: Official journal of the federal government of the United States that contains government agency rules, proposed rules, and public notices.

3. Credible News Outlets: Reputable news organizations reporting on the finalization and enforcement of the ban.

Criteria for a "Yes" Resolution: The market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2030, an official federal ban on menthol cigarettes is enacted and in effect in the United States. This includes:

1. Legislation Passed: A law passed by Congress and signed by the President banning menthol cigarettes.

2. FDA Regulation: Finalization and implementation of FDA regulations that prohibit the manufacture, distribution, and sale of menthol cigarettes.

Criteria for a "No" Resolution: The market will resolve to "No" if, by December 31, 2030, no such federal ban is enacted and in effect. This includes scenarios where:

1. No Legislation or Regulation: No federal law or regulation banning menthol cigarettes has been passed or implemented.

2. Incomplete Processes: Proposed bans or regulations are still under consideration, in public comment stages, or otherwise not yet in effect.

Important Notes:

• The ban must be federal, not state or local.

• The ban must explicitly include menthol cigarettes; bans on other/general flavored tobacco products alone do not count.

• The market will not resolve based on partial, proposed, or incomplete regulatory actions.