Когда рубль упадет, ракеты полетят. Это сезон дарения. 📉

@10thOfficial As the market creator what's your stance on resolving in regards to ambiguity to "variant of", "based on", etc?

@10thOfficial Can be resolved?

https://www.ft.com/content/34ac518b-e696-4a19-b91a-d9f273083f3d

@Paradoxicorn what does the paywalled article say? In all other articles of says that it's a new IMBM. Is it really a modified RS-26?

@Paradoxicorn US gov. appear to be leaning towards the missile being the RS-26,

• "Sabrina Singh, the Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, described the Oreshnik as a variant of Russia’s RS-26 ballistic missile. The RS-26 is a 40-ton, solid-fueled missile that straddles two treaty categories." (Forbes: The Mysterious Ballistic Missile Russia Fired At Ukraine Was Created By Sneaky Treaty-Dodgers)

but "variant of RS-26" is kind of ambitious. It could mean a literal variant of the RS-26, or it could be a new system based on it.

At this point there's literally no media consensus as to what kind of weapon it is. It could be an RS-26, or a new version of the Yars-M, Iskander; or it could be a completely new system.

Also, government statements points towards the system not being the RS-26 (BBC: What we know about Russia's Oreshnik missile):

• Russian gov. statement:

  • "Hours after the strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a TV address, said that Russia had launched a "new conventional intermediate-range" missile with the codename Oreshnik, meaning hazel tree in Russian."

• Ukrainian gov. statement:

  • "Ukrainian military intelligence maintains that the missile is a new type of ICBM known as Kedr (cedar)."

According to Putin today's strike was with a new IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile), not an ICBM https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20726y20kvt?post=asset:47fd8644-8538-475d-a3cc-6f5714f0d191

@Enlil DOD mentioned RS-26

@Paradoxicorn yeah, Ukrainian news did as well

@Paradoxicorn wow, you went way in on YES. Anything I should read or consider to appreciate the risk more?

@Enlil there are now videos circulating at X showing an attack, that looks like involving MaRV payload.

@Paradoxicorn but maybe it was not a RS-26

@Paradoxicorn I cannot gauge if this would be a sign that Russia is out of equipment or just really committed. Using an ICBM on a neighboring country seems like taking a cruise ship on a harbor tour.

According to Wikipedia that "is a Russian solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile, equipped with a thermonuclearMIRV or MaRV payload"

Seems pretty massive of a thing to use. Going full Civ Gandhi

@Enlil it can have a non-nuclear load